Minerals are an important part of China's resources. It is understood that China's mineral resources situation has undergone new changes, mineral mining and consumption demand or to the turning point. In recent years, the growth rate of mineral resources consumption has gradually slowed down. What is the specific situation? Let's learn with Xiaobian. China's mineral resources situation has undergone new changes in mineral mining and consumer demand or to the turning point With the increasingly obvious new normal characteristics of economic development, China's mineral resources situation has undergone new changes. Since 2010, China's economy has shifted from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth, which has been going on for nearly seven years. In 2016, the economic growth rate was 6.7%, which was close to 40% compared with the economic growth rate in 2010. In the first half of 2017, the economy grew by 6.9%, and the stability, coordination and sustainability of economic development increased. Under the slowdown of economic growth, China's mining industry has changed from an upward rapid expansion in the past 10 years to a downward contraction. The contribution of mining development to economic growth has been weakening year by year. China's mining industry has started to oscillate down from around 2011. After 2014, the overall downward trend is obvious. Under the background of economic development entering the new normal and mining adjustment, tracking the changes in the mining and consumption of mineral resources in China, exploring the driving forces and trends behind this change, and timely adjusting the exploration strategy of China's mineral resources and promoting global minerals. Resource management has important reference significance. 1. The total amount of mineral resources mined may have crossed the peak and entered a period of high fluctuation From 1995 to 2015, the total amount of mineral resources exploitation in China experienced steady growth, rapid growth and high fluctuations. From 1995 to 2001, the total amount of mineral resources exploitation increased slowly from 4.085 billion tons to 4.40 billion tons, an average annual increase of 1.8%. From 2002 to 2011, the total amount of mineral resources exploitation increased rapidly from 4.761 billion tons to 10.618 billion. Tonnage, an average annual growth rate of 9.4%; since 2012, the total growth rate of mineral resources mining has slowed significantly, reaching a peak of 11.082 billion tons in 2014 and 10.414 billion tons in 2015, down 6.0% year-on-year. The 2016 data is not yet available, but some of the data released indicates that the total mining volume in 2016 continued the downward trend in 2015. From the perspective of mineral resources, the amount of building materials is high, accounting for 47.4% of the total mining resources; followed by fossil energy, accounting for an average of 37.4%; metal ore again, accounting for an average of 12.9%; , an average of 2.3%. It should be noted that although the total amount of mineral resources mining peaked in 2014 and entered a period of high volatility, the mining volume of some minerals such as natural gas and rare earth still maintained a trend of increasing year by year. Since the mining volume of these minerals accounts for a small proportion of the total mining resources, its growth trend cannot offset the downward trend of other minerals with larger mining volumes. First, the amount of fossil energy extraction peaked in 2013 and then continued to decline. From 2002 to 2011, fossil energy extraction increased rapidly from 1.608 billion tons to 4.173 billion tons, an average annual increase of 12.6%; after 2011, the growth rate slowed significantly, reaching a peak of 4.277 billion tons in 2013; It will fall to 3.719 billion tons by 2016, with an average annual decline of 4.5%. From the perspective of fossil energy composition, the coal mining volume is high, accounting for 91.0% of the fossil energy extraction, followed by oil, which accounts for 7.0%; the low is natural gas, accounting for 2.0%. The amount of coal mining peaked in 2013 and then continued to decline. The decline has been expanding year by year. The amount of oil extraction fell for the first time in 2016, down 6.9% year-on-year; natural gas extraction continued to grow, but 2015-2016 The annual growth rate has narrowed significantly. Second, the amount of metal ore mining has stabilized at a high level since 2012. From 2002 to 2011, the amount of metal ore mining increased rapidly from 355 million tons to 1.544 billion tons, an average annual increase of 17.8%. In 2012, the growth rate slowed down significantly and increased to 1.946 billion tons in 2014. It declined in 2015. It fell by 6.8% year-on-year. From the perspective of metal ore composition, ferrous metal mining accounts for an average of 77.3%, and non-ferrous metal mining accounts for an average of 22.7%. The amount of ferrous metal mining peaked in 2013 and began to decline year by year in 2014. Among them, the iron ore mining volume reached a peak of 1.522 billion tons in 2013, and the average annual decline in 2014-2016 was 5.5%. The amount of non-ferrous metal mining continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed significantly after 2013. Among them, the increase in the mining volume of ten non-ferrous metals decreased from 14.5% in 2002-2013 to 5.9% in 2016-2016. Third, the amount of industrial minerals has stabilized at a high level since 2011. From 2002 to 2011, the industrial mineral extraction volume increased rapidly from 115 million tons to 263 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 11.3%. In 2012, the growth rate slowed down significantly and increased to 271 million tons in 2014. It declined in 2015. It was down 3.9% year-on-year. Industrial minerals include barite, talc, graphite and other minerals. The mining volume of most minerals shows a consistent pattern with the amount of industrial minerals, but the amount of potassium salt is continuously increasing. Fourth, the amount of building materials mining fluctuated at a high level after 2011. From 2002 to 2011, the amount of building materials extracted rapidly increased from 2.683 billion tons to 4.538 billion tons, an average annual increase of 6.0%; high fluctuations began in 2012, declined in 2012 and 2015, and increased slightly in 2013 and 2014. . The building materials include cement (the ore required for production), limestone for building stone, clay for brick and tile, etc. The mining volume of most minerals shows a consistent pattern with the overall trend of the amount of building materials. For example, cement production reached a peak of 2.492 billion tons in 2014, a slight decline from 2014 to 2015. From the data of mining volume, a few large-scale minerals determine the changing trend of the total amount of mineral resources exploitation. These large types of minerals include coal, iron, and cement. The proportion of coal mining in the amount of fossil energy extracted is 91.0% on average. The ratio of iron ore mining to metal ore mining is an average of 75.7%. The proportion of ore mined in cement production to the amount of building materials mined is an average of 38.9%. Second, the growth rate of total mineral resources consumption has slowed down significantly and different minerals have differentiated. Similar to the change in the total amount of mineral resources exploitation, from 1995 to 2016, China's total consumption of mineral resources experienced a steady growth, rapid growth and a significant slowdown in growth. Consumption of bulk minerals with consumption of 1 billion tons may peak and decline slightly. Most non-ferrous metals and precious metals consumption slows down, high levels stabilize, and oil and gas minerals and consumption are below 10,000 tons. Emerging mineral consumption continues to grow. Therefore, it can be judged that after 2014, the growth of China's total mineral resources consumption has undergone a turning point, and the growth rate has changed from a rapid growth in the past to a slow growth, and there is a tendency to stabilize at a high level. First, the consumption of coal, iron ore, cement and other mineral products with a consumption of 1 billion tons has reached a peak and has dropped slightly. Coal consumption reached a peak of 2.81 billion tons of standard coal in 2013; it has been decreasing year by year since 2013, and the decline has been expanding year by year, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% in 2016. Iron ore consumption (according to 65% of finished minerals) slowed significantly after 2011, reaching a peak of 1.690 billion tons in 2014; a slight decrease in 2015-2016, with an average ratio reduction of 2.1%. Similar to iron ore consumption, cement consumption reached a peak of 2.476 billion tons in 2014, a slight decrease from 2015 to 2016, with an average ratio reduction of 4.1%. The consumption of mineral products of these minerals accounts for a relatively high proportion of the total consumption of mineral resources, which largely determines the trend of the total consumption of mineral resources. Second, the consumption growth of most non-ferrous metals and precious metals such as aluminum, copper and gold slowed down and the high level stabilized. According to consumption, aluminum and copper rank the top two of non-ferrous metals, generally accounting for about 70% of non-ferrous metal consumption. According to Chen Qishen and other research forecasts, China has entered the peak area of ​​aluminum demand, and may reach the peak of consumption around 2017. Refined copper consumption 2015 - 2016 growth rate slowed significantly, with a 0.5% increase in 2015 and a 2.8% increase in 2016. Gold consumption reached a high of 1176.4 tons in 2013 and fluctuated around 970 tons in 2014-2016. Third, the strategic emerging mineral consumption of oil and gas minerals and consumption in the 10,000-ton class and below continues to grow. Oil and gas consumption has maintained a growing trend since 1995, and there has been no significant change in growth rates in recent years. Oil has grown at an average annual rate of 4.8% and natural gas has grown at an average annual rate of 9.1%. The consumption of strategic emerging minerals such as rare earth, lithium, antimony, zirconium, indium, antimony, antimony and gallium with consumption of 10,000 tons and below has increased rapidly year by year, and the growth rate has not decreased significantly. Taking lithium as an example, since 2003, the overall consumption of lithium has shown a rapid growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of 12.8%. The problem of domestic supply shortage is getting more and more serious. 3. Domestic and international economic adjustments promote a historic turning point in the mineral resources situation At present, China's total mineral resources mining and consumption have changed from rapid growth in the past to high volatility and high stability, and this trend has irreversible characteristics with the continued new economic normal. From this, we can judge that the mineral resources situation in China has undergone a historic turning point. Exploring the background of this turning point, the domestic economic development shift is an internal fundamental driving force, and the deep adjustment of the international economic structure is an external catalyst. 1. The domestic economy shifts from quantity catching up to quality catching up to ease the dependence of resources on rigidity Since 2010, China's economy has begun to shift from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, and GDP growth has continued to decline, but the growth rate has been decreasing year by year. In the first half of 2017, the economy grew by 6.9%, and the pattern of stabilization has been consolidated. During this period, the economic structure has changed from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry in the past. The growth mode has changed from the growth of the mass of resources to the growth of innovation-driven growth. With the domestic economic growth shift and economic restructuring, the driving force of mineral resource consumption and mining has undergone a historic change. On the one hand, this kind of change is due to the inherent demand for mineral resources in the economic development stage from the mid-industrialization to the late industrialization. On the other hand, it is the active choice of the country to accelerate the transformation of economic development mode. First, the development of resource-intensive industries has gradually given way to technology-intensive manufacturing. In recent years, there has been a significant structural decline and growth within China's manufacturing industry. The old growth drivers, mainly energy-intensive industries and low-tech industries, are on the decline, and new growth drivers, represented by high-end manufacturing, are emerging. In 2014-2016, the high-tech, high-value-added, low-energy industrial sectors such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing industries have developed well, and have maintained profits of more than 10%. Speed ​​up. The profits of resource-intensive industries such as heavy chemical industry, metal products industry and comprehensive utilization of waste resources continued to decline. The profit growth rate of the metal products industry decreased by 3.9%, and the profit growth rate of the comprehensive utilization of waste resources decreased by 27.2%. At the same time, the proportion of mining in the national economy is slowly declining. The added value of mining industry accounted for 13.7% of the industrial added value in 2011, and then slowly decreased year by year. In 2016, the added value of mining industry above designated size decreased by 1.0%, and in the first half of 2017, it decreased by 1.0% year-on-year. Continue to decline. Second, the growth rate of infrastructure construction and housing construction continued to decline. From the perspective of infrastructure investment, after years of rapid growth, many infrastructure areas in China have reached a fairly developed level. The growth rate of investment in infrastructure construction peaked around 2011, and the growth rate of capital continued to fall, reaching 17.4% in 2016. Real estate has changed from a shortage of supply in the past to a current stage surplus, and the growth rate has dropped significantly. The annual growth rate of urban built-up area has dropped from 6% in 2001-2012 to 3.7% at present, and the growth rate of urbanization rate has slowed down. Third, the construction of ecological civilization has been further advanced, and the mining and consumption policies for mineral resources have tightened. In 2016, 240 new counties of the State Council were included in the national key ecological function zones, and the total number of national key ecological functional zones increased to 676 county-level administrative regions. In 2013-2017, the State Council added 100 national nature reserves, increasing the total number to 463. In 2017, more and more provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Hunan issued documents to steadily promote the retreat of mining rights in nature reserves; the Ministry of Land and Resources issued a document to initiate the clean-up of mining rights in various protected areas; the Zui High People's Court issued Judicial interpretation, strengthening the legal constraints of mineral resources exploration and exploitation activities in areas such as nature reserves, scenic spots, key ecological function areas, ecological environment sensitive areas and vulnerable areas. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Land and Resources and other departments have successively issued documents to promote the comprehensive and efficient use of mineral resources. With the continuous introduction of ecological environmental protection policies related to the development of mineral resources, more and more national soil space highlights ecological functions, mining exploration and mining space is decreasing; ecological environmental protection requirements are gradually increasing, and environmental costs of mineral exploration and exploitation are increasing; ecological environmental supervision The requirements are becoming increasingly strict, and the constraints on the mineral exploration and mining environment are constantly increasing. 2. Deep adjustment of the international economic structure to promote the upgrading and migration of domestic resource-dependent industries Since the US subprime mortgage crisis dragged the global economy into a depression in 2008, the world economic structure has been deeply adjusted and growth has continued to be sluggish. The adjustment of the global economic structure has had a profound impact on the industrial layout of countries and the demand for mineral resources. First, re-industrialization in Europe and the United States and strengthening infrastructure construction will promote the adjustment of supply and demand in the global market. Since the 1980s, China's consumption of mineral resources has increased substantially, both from the needs of its own economic development, as well as from the needs of developed countries that are divided by international industrial divisions in the form of industrial product exports. After the global economic crisis in 2008, the world economy continued to slump, and developed countries in Europe and the United States launched a "re-industrialization" strategy. From the current pattern, the global economy has formed the market structure of the United States, the European Union, and China's "troika". The three major market economies account for more than 60% of the global economic aggregate, which plays a decisive role in the global economic trend. . China has become a major exporter of medium and high-end goods, and infrastructure advantages and some equipment advantages will drive capital output. The adjustment of the global economic structure and the changes in China's international division of labor are conducive to reducing the rigid demand for mineral resources from Chinese exports. Second, China has increased its resource imports and foreign investment to promote international capacity cooperation. Under the situation that the world's mining industry continues to be sluggish, the price of international mineral products has fallen and fluctuated at a low level, which is conducive to significantly reducing the cost of imported mineral products in China. Although the total amount of mineral resources in China is large, the quality is often poor, and the mining cost is not competitive with foreign countries. From 2011 to 2016, the proportion of imports of bulk mineral products in China has been rising. The proportion of crude oil imports rose from 57.7% to 66%, with an average annual growth rate of 8.2%, which is greater than the growth rate of crude oil consumption (5.1% per year); the proportion of iron ore imports rose from 50.7% to 61.5%, with an average annual growth rate of 8.4%. , greater than the growth rate of iron ore consumption (average annual average of 4.3%). The growth rate of crude oil and iron ore imports is greater than the growth rate of consumption, which is also an important reason for the decline in domestic production. At the same time, China has strengthened its global presence by expanding overseas investment and industrial transfer. In recent years, China's foreign investment flows have increased rapidly, from US$26.51 billion in 2002 to US$17.11 billion in 2016, with an average annual growth rate of over 11% and a surge of 44.1% in 2016. In 2015, China's foreign direct investment ranked second in the world and became a net exporter of capital. In China, direct investment in developed countries is dominated by mergers and acquisitions, and assets are the main form. In developing countries, greenfield investment and industrial transfer are the main forms. Fourth, the plan for the development of mineral resources survey plan According to this series of changes in the situation, the mineral resources survey program can focus on the following points: According to changes in supply and demand structure, adjust mineral resources to investigate the layout of minerals. First, we must strengthen the investigation and evaluation of oil and gas minerals, including basic surveys of oil, natural gas and unconventional oil and gas resources, and serve the supply of national energy resources. Second, we must strengthen the investigation of small minerals such as lithium, antimony and zirconium, and serve the rapid development of strategic industries. Investigations on metal minerals that are too dependent on copper, nickel, cobalt, etc., to improve the domestic level of these minerals. According to the importance of minerals and the supply and demand situation, a reasonable survey of mineral resources in various ecological functional areas will be conducted. As the consumption of some minerals in China has entered a stage of slow decline, the exploration and development of corresponding minerals will gradually withdraw from the areas of nature reserves and ecologically sensitive areas, which will not have a major impact on the resource security of these minerals. However, some minerals play an important role in economic development. At the same time, the degree of external dependence is too high and imports are very risky. The economic and ecological benefits should be comprehensively evaluated. According to the evaluation results, the mineral resources should be rationally distributed in various functional areas. jobs. Taking the “One Belt, One Road†major initiative as the starting point, we will promote international cooperation in mineral resources investigation. With the goal of broadening the import channels of mineral resources and reducing import risks, we will actively promote the globalization of mineral resources exploration and development, on the one hand to serve China's mining enterprises to “go globalâ€, and on the other hand serve China's low-end manufacturing industries to migrate to local mineral resources. Need. Promote cooperation with countries in geological surveys and mineral resources, and adapt to new models and new patterns of global resource exploration and development.
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Abstract Minerals is an important part of China's resources. It is understood that China's mineral resources situation has undergone new changes, mineral mining and consumer demand or to the turning point. In recent years, the growth rate of mineral resources consumption has gradually slowed down. What is the specific situation? Let's take a look at it with Xiaobian. China mine...