In the first five months of this year, China’s textile and apparel exports totaled $106.84 billion, marking a 3.6% increase compared to the same period last year. While this growth rate is down by 10% from the previous year, it shows a positive turnaround from the beginning of the year, indicating a steady recovery for the industry. This marks the third consecutive month of growth, signaling that the sector is on a more stable path.
Despite global economic recovery being slower than expected, it has still shown improvement over previous years. The international market remains relatively stable, and the export environment for textiles is generally favorable. As macroeconomic conditions continue to improve, consumer demand is expected to grow, supporting a continued upward trend in textile exports. However, internal structural factors within the industry also deserve attention as they play a crucial role in shaping export performance.
One key factor is the balance between volume and price. From January to April, the average export price of textiles and clothing fell by 2.2% year-on-year, contributing negatively to total export growth (-97%). When excluding price effects, the actual volume of exports increased by 4.5%, showing that the physical scale of exports is still growing steadily, albeit at a slightly slower pace.
This year marked a reversal of the long-term upward trend in textile prices since 2010, primarily due to falling raw material costs. The State Reserve Cotton price drop and declining chemical fiber prices, driven by supply-demand imbalances, have had a ripple effect on downstream products. Additionally, fierce competition in the international market and the RMB’s depreciation have further pressured export pricing. With raw material prices expected to remain low, the impact of price on export growth is likely to stay muted.
Looking at product structure, yarn exports saw a significant price decline of 10.9% from January to April, despite an 8.9% rise in volume. This led to a 2.2% decrease in total export value. Fabric exports remained relatively stable in terms of price (up 2.2%), but volume dropped by 1.5% due to weaker demand in ASEAN markets, resulting in only a 1.1% increase in total value. Apparel exports grew by just 0.9%, largely due to a 4.2% drop in export prices, with cotton garments seeing a steep 13.3% decline.
In contrast, domestic and industrial textile exports showed greater stability, with a 7.1% year-on-year increase in volume. Price increases contributed about 53% to this growth, while volume added 47%.
On the market front, emerging markets like ASEAN have seen volatility. Exports to ASEAN rose only 1.7% from January to April, a sharp drop from the previous year’s levels. Apparel exports, which make up nearly 40% of the total, fell by 11%, reflecting weak domestic demand in these regions. However, as developed economies recover, there may be room for improvement in the future.
Meanwhile, advanced economies such as the EU have been a bright spot, with textile and apparel exports rising 15.1% year-on-year, including a 10% increase in volume and 3.5% in price. The U.S. market remained stable, with a 5.4% increase in exports, slightly lower than the previous year.
Overall, the Chinese textile industry is navigating a complex landscape, balancing price pressures, shifting market dynamics, and evolving global demand. While challenges remain, the sector continues to show resilience and potential for sustained growth.
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