Shandong Yahong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.okrooftile.com
Abstract At the CDI Shanghai Annual Meeting, Panos Kotseras, a senior cobalt analyst from CRU, presented a report titled “Interim Prospect Analysis of the Cobalt Market.†The presentation outlined key trends and developments in the cobalt industry between 2011 and 2013. Here’s a detailed summary of the main points discussed:
First, the **industry trend**. During this period, the cobalt market experienced declining prices with low volatility. There was significant restructuring within the industry, along with shifts in raw material sources and a surge in demand for battery applications. These factors shaped the direction of the cobalt supply chain during those years.
Second, the **production data**. Cobalt is primarily produced as a by-product of copper and nickel mining. In 2011, approximately 65% of global cobalt came from copper ores, 30% from nickel ores, and 5% from other metals. Geographically, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) dominated production, accounting for 55% of the world's total, followed by Russia (7%), Zambia and Cuba (5% each), Australia (4%), Canada (3%), and the rest at 20%.
Since 2010, electro-refined cobalt output has seen steady growth. By 2012, global production reached about 36,000 tons, with 26,000 tons used in metallurgical applications and 10,000 tons in non-metallurgical sectors. By 2017, this was expected to rise to 52,000 tons, with 32,000 tons used in metallurgy and 20,000 tons in non-metallurgical uses. Third-party wet-process smelting intermediates also saw increased production, rising from 41,000 tons in 2012 to nearly 70,000 tons in 2017. Crude cobalt hydroxide made up over 50% of that volume, with the remainder consisting of cobalt carbonate, white alloys, and cobalt sulfate.
Driven by the expansion of cobalt chemical production, refined cobalt output grew from around 81,200 tons in 2012 to nearly 109,000 tons in 2017. The product mix shifted, with 52,000 tons of cobalt metal and 57,000 tons of cobalt chemicals. China’s imports of wet-process intermediates were expected to continue growing, and the country entered a destocking phase in 2012.
Third, the **consumption structure**. Cobalt chemicals and superalloys accounted for roughly 75% of global consumption. In 2012, cobalt chemicals represented 58% of usage, while high-temperature alloys took up 17%. Cemented carbides and diamond tools accounted for 10%, magnetic materials 7%, hard-faced steels 4%, and high-speed tool steels 3%. Synthetic diamonds made up just 1%. Over time, the share of cobalt used in the metallurgical sector dropped from 54% in 2000 to 41% in 2014, while the chemical sector rose from 46% to 59%.
Regionally, China consumed 36% of global cobalt in 2012, followed by other Asian countries (28%), the U.S. (17%), Western Europe (15%), South America (2%), and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (1%). The U.S. share fell from 34% in 2000 to 16% in 2014, while China’s increased from 9% to 38%. Long-term projections suggest an average annual growth rate of around 6%, increasing from 80,000 tons in 2012 to 112,000 tons in 2017.
Fourth, the **supply-demand balance**. In the short to medium term, the global cobalt market remained tight. Before 2016, there was an oversupply, with surpluses of 1,200 tons in 2012 and 800 tons in 2013, peaking at 3,800 tons in 2014. A supply gap of 3,200 tons was projected for 2017.
The metallurgical sector, including high-temperature alloys, high-speed tool steels, and magnetic materials, was oversupplied. Surpluses peaked at 3,000 tons in 2014, but a small deficit of 300 tons was expected in 2017. In contrast, non-metallurgical industries—such as inorganic salts, synthetic diamonds, and carbide tools—faced tighter supply conditions. A supply gap of 2,900 tons was expected by 2017.
Fifth, the **price outlook**. Cobalt prices were under downward pressure in the near term. In 2013, the average price of 99.8% electrocobalt was estimated at $13.4 per pound, and 99.3% electrocobalt at $12.5 per pound. However, prices were expected to rise after 2015, reaching $16.6/lb for 99.8% and $15.5/lb for 99.3% by 2017.
Lastly, the **LME cobalt contract**. The London Metal Exchange (LME) cobalt price and contract volume were closely aligned, and the volume of LME cobalt contracts was expected to grow steadily in the coming years.