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Analysts believe that the sluggish data indicates that economic growth is experiencing pains. In the process of insisting on supply-side structural reforms, it is still necessary to increase the policy of steady growth.
Real estate investment growth rate rebounded for the first time in two years
The National Bureau of Statistics announced the first two months of macroeconomic data on the 12th, the most outstanding performance is real estate investment data.
Data show that in January and February, the growth rate of national real estate development investment increased by 2 percentage points to 3% compared with the end of last year. This is the first time that the data has rebounded after two years. In the same period, the sales area of ​​commercial housing increased by 28.2% year-on-year, and the sales volume soared by 43.6%.
“Commodity housing sales have gradually recovered since the fourth quarter of last year. Since the beginning of the year, the government has issued a series of real estate destocking policies, including lowering the down payment ratio and adjusting the deed tax/business tax, which has further boosted sales and thus transferred to investment.†Morgans Zhang Jun, chief economist of Danli Huaxin Securities, said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Driven by the rebound in real estate investment, the overall investment growth rate in January and February also rebounded to 10.2%.
However, the market remains skeptical about whether the real estate investment growth rate can continue. One of the major concerns comes from the nationwide real estate inventory that is still rising. Data show that at the end of February, the saleable area of ​​commercial housing was 739.31 million square meters, an increase of 20.77 million square meters from the end of last year.
Therefore, Li Wei, senior statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, also stressed that the basis for the continued rise in commercial housing sales is still weak, and the difficulty of destocking in third- and fourth-tier cities is not diminished.
Hu Yuexiao, chief macro analyst of Shanghai Securities, also believes that “as the inflection point of the real estate cycle has emerged and the stage of China’s economic development has reached the stage of structural adjustment and efficiency improvement, the trend of real estate investment growth will not continue, and the investment growth that drives economic recovery will continue. I still have to rely on infrastructure investment."
Industrial maintenance structure optimization trend
What is worrying is the decline in industrial value added and consumption growth. Statistics show that in January and February, the growth rate of industrial added value dropped by 0.5 percentage points from 5.9% last year to 5.4%, while consumption fell by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month to 10.2%.
"The growth rate of industrial production has declined. There are reasons why the industrial structure is in a period of adjustment, the foundation of industrial economic stabilization is still weak, and there are also seasonal fluctuations." Jiang Yuanru, senior statistician of the Industry Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets.
Zhang Jun believes that “in the context of weak domestic demand and weak external demand, the decline in industrial production has not been reversed. At the same time, the negative impact of the long-term economic downturn on consumption has gradually emerged. Therefore, the government should increase the steady growth policy in the future. The strength."
It is worth mentioning that although the overall industry is weak, it still maintains the structural optimization trend.
From the breakdown of data, the slowdown in growth rate is still obvious in some high-energy-consuming industries and traditional industries, such as steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, building materials and other high-energy-consuming industries. On the contrary, high-tech industries and emerging products that are in line with the direction of consumption upgrading still maintain rapid growth. For example, the growth rate of aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, electronics and communication equipment manufacturing and information chemicals manufacturing is still high.
Stable growth needs to continue to increase
Judging from the economic data of the previous two months, the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large, and it is necessary to continue to increase the number of stable growth.
In Zhang Jun’s point of view, the follow-up still needs a wide monetary and financial cooperation. "This year's fiscal deficit rate has increased to 3%, but the incremental funds that can be released are extremely limited. It seems that a proactive fiscal policy is difficult to support, and a relatively loose monetary policy is needed to provide matching funds for the construction of large-scale infrastructure projects. â€
However, the people's livelihood macro research team believes that the bottoming economy needs to make the active fiscal policy truly "active". On the one hand, it will increase expenditures by revitalizing stocks and continuing to accelerate the promotion of PPP. On the other hand, it will continue to reduce structural taxes. Implement the reform of the camp and stimulate the potential of corporate investment and household consumption.
Abstract The latest macroeconomic data released in the first two months of this year is mixed. The good news is that the growth rate of real estate investment has rebounded for the first time in two years, and the overall investment growth rate has rebounded. The worry is that the growth rate of industrial production has fallen to 5.4% of the low of seven years, and the growth rate of consumption has also dropped. .
The latest macroeconomic data released in the first two months of this year can be described as mixed. The good news is that the growth rate of real estate investment rebounded for the first time in two years, and the overall investment growth rate rebounded. The worry is that the growth rate of industrial production fell to 5.4% of the low of seven years, and the growth rate of consumption also fell back to 9 Month new low.