Abstract Unlike the previous year's traditional car sales season “Golden Nine”, the 2018 Chinese auto market has not only continued the slow growth rate, but the monthly data is constantly reflecting the harshness of reality. In September this year, the sales of passenger cars in China fell again, and sales have increased for three consecutive months...

Unlike the previous year's traditional car sales season "Golden Nine", most of the 2018 Chinese auto market has not only continued the slow growth rate, but the monthly data is constantly reflecting the harshness of reality. In September of this year, the sales volume of passenger cars in China fell again. The sales growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months, dropping to the “freezing point” in the past seven years. Global car sales are not optimistic, not only continue the low growth in 2017, the growth of car sales in the world's major markets slowed down, and China has become the only incremental market for many foreign-owned car companies.

However, in the global environment full of chilly and chilly, the new energy vehicle market is in the ascendant, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles is unique, attracting major auto giants to increase the layout. The industry believes that new energy vehicles will welcome global heavy volume.

Passenger car production and sales growth rate or turn negative

The auto market has always been "Golden September and Silver 10", but there seems to be some exceptions this year.

A few days ago, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the China Automobile Association) released data showing that in September 2018, China's automobile production was 2,356,200 units, down 11.71% year-on-year; sales were 2,394,100 units. Specifically, in the passenger vehicle field, in September this year, passenger cars produced 2.024 million units, down 11.86% year-on-year; sales reached 2.0605 million units, down 12.04% year-on-year.

In fact, this has been a year-on-year decline in production and sales for three consecutive months. The data shows that since the domestic auto market stepped on the "brake" with a negative growth of 4.0% in July this year, it continued to decline by 3.8% in August, and the decline in September further expanded to a rare double digit. At the same time, this is the first time since China became the world's largest auto market in 2009, the first monthly sales fell more than 10%.

"In the fourth quarter, China's auto market will continue to decline." Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, said that in June and July of last year, due to seasonal factors, market growth was relatively flat. August was a turning point for the weaker and stronger market, but this year. After August, car sales are still accelerating, showing the severity of the market. Therefore, he predicted that the overall growth rate of passenger vehicles this year will be zero growth or negative growth.

In this regard, Zhou Yi, an assistant researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council Development Research Center, analyzed that the production and sales of automobiles from January to September totaled 20.491 million units. The production and sales volume increased by 0.9% and 1.5% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year, considering that production and sales have been for three consecutive months. The year-on-year decline, car production and sales this year is likely to have negative growth.

Zhou Yi said that the sales volume of the auto industry was bleak, mainly due to factors such as the large sales base in the past years, insufficient consumer confidence and the decline in macroeconomic growth. In the past two years, the growth of automobile sales has overdrafted the growth of automobile sales. After the purchase tax concession policy was abolished in 2018, the sales volume of automobiles dropped unexpectedly.

The Chinese market is a bright spot

Looking at the world, the auto market seems to step into the cold winter.

On October 9, Volkswagen disclosed its global sales data for September, down 18.3% year-on-year to 485,000 units, of which the Western European market fell 46.4% year-on-year to 73,000 units, while the German market fell 47.1% year-on-year to 23,300 units. It fell 10.5% year-on-year to 277,800 units.

Not only the public, GM, Geely, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Audi and many other car companies in September sales were down.

According to data from Mark Lines, in July this year, the sales volume of new cars in the United States was only 1.370 million, down 3.2% year-on-year. In August, the sales volume of new cars in the United States was 1,482,300, down 0.1% year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume in January-August was 463,400. The vehicle increased by 1% year-on-year. In September, the US auto market still experienced a large decline year-on-year. Many brands of cars sold double-digit declines, and sales of pickup trucks and recreational vehicles only increased.

According to data from the Japan Automobile Sales Association and the National Microcar Association of Japan, the cumulative sales volume of the Japanese auto market in January-August this year was about 3,358,200 units, down 0.8% year-on-year. In September, sales in the Japanese new car market fell 2% year-on-year. To about 485,400 vehicles; from January to September, cumulative sales fell by 0.9% to approximately 4,023,700.

In contrast, the performance of the Chinese auto market entering the micro-growth has become the only bright spot in many car companies' September transcripts. For example, BMW's sales in China were about 52,700 units, up 7.1% year-on-year; Toyota's retail sales in the Chinese market (including Lexus) was about 140,000 units, an increase of nearly 18% over the same period last year. In addition, many brands including Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Hyundai have achieved positive growth in the Chinese market. Among them, the Mercedes-Benz, which just released the latest sales data, in addition to the outstanding performance of the Chinese market, the sales volume in other parts of the world has declined; Audi's global sales in September also fell 22% year-on-year, except for the Chinese and Mexican markets. The European market saw a significant decline, and the US market was basically the same as last month.

New energy vehicles stand out

In stark contrast to the sturdy passenger car market is the new energy vehicle market. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to September were 734,600 and 721,500 respectively, up 73.05% and 81.05% respectively. Among them, plug-in hybrid vehicles showed explosive growth. In the third quarter of this year, production and sales were 179,900 and 180,800 respectively, up by 138.04% and 146.87% respectively. The production and sales of pure electric vehicles increased by more than 50%. According to the data of the Federation, in September, the wholesale sales of new energy narrow passenger cars totaled 99,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 70%, a record high. In September, pure electricity and plug-in performance were strong. From January to September, sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 600,000 units, nearly double the year-on-year growth.

The production and sales of new energy vehicles are not only unique in the Chinese market, but also a flame in the global market. According to data released by the US EV Sales website recently, in the first eight months of this year, the cumulative sales of electric vehicles worldwide has exceeded 1 million units, a 69% year-on-year increase. Some analysts predict that global electric vehicle sales this year is expected to exceed 2 million.

According to statistics from the US industry group Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE), since January 2011, the US market has sold more than 990,000 electric vehicles, and sold only 110,000 electric vehicles in the third quarter of 2018, and 2017. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the growth rate was 108%. Among them, the vast majority (more than 80,600) are pure electric vehicles, and the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles also exceeds 29,000.

In the face of this thriving market, a number of auto giants have adjusted their postures and invested heavily in the manufacture of new energy vehicles to speed up the layout.

On October 19th, the SAIC Volkswagen New Energy Automobile Factory, which cost 17 billion yuan, was officially started. It is reported that the plant has a total construction area of ​​approximately 610,000 square meters and is scheduled to be completed and put into operation in October 2020, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 units. The factory covers an area of ​​405,600 square meters. It is the world's first pure electric vehicle factory specializing in the production of MEB platform (MEB platform is Volkswagen's first electric vehicle module platform), and the world's first dedicated to produce large quantities of electric A pure electric vehicle platform designed for the car. After the completion of the factory, many new pure electric models of SAIC will be put into production here, including positioning medium-sized and medium-sized pure electric SUVs, and covering new energy models of Volkswagen, Audi and Skoda. SAIC Volkswagen plans to launch 40 new energy vehicles and deliver 1 million units by 2020.

Two days ago, the star electric car company Tesla announced that it would take a land plot of 973 million yuan, which is the location of the Tesla Shanghai Super Factory. According to the disclosure, the area of ​​the land exceeds 860,000 square meters (more than 1200 acres), and the investment intensity of the land is not less than the price of 10.85 million yuan per mu. The total investment of the project will not be lower than 140 in the future. 100 million yuan. Previously, the basic information on the construction status of the plot showed that the agreed commencement time was within 6 months after the handover, and the agreed completion time was within 30 months after the handover. This means that the Tesla Shanghai Super Factory will be completed in two and a half years. Upon completion, the plant will have an annual production capacity of 500,000 units.

According to the plans of SAIC Volkswagen and Tesla, if the two factories are put into production smoothly, a total of 800,000 pure electric vehicles will be added to the southeast and northwest corners of Shanghai.

BMW has also increased its size and invested in a new energy market in China. On October 11, BMW said it will increase its investment in BMW Brilliance by 3 billion euros for the expansion and expansion of Shenyang production base in the next few years; in the next three to five years, the annual production capacity of BMW Brilliance will increase to 650,000; The construction of the factory is expected to be produced in Shenyang by the 2020, the first pure electric vehicle BMW iX3 in the BMW brand core product series. This product is not only sold in China, but also exported to the global market. BMW Chairman Kruger further stated that China will become the global production base of BMW's new energy vehicles.

China Merchants Securities believes that projects such as the Volkswagen MEB platform factory and the Tesla Super Factory will bring more new energy models with stronger products, which will drive the rise of consumers' spontaneous consumption demand, and new energy vehicles will welcome global volume. .

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